Transforming renewable energy investment landscapes: RE transitions in Kenya, Morocco and South Africa compared

Together with Vietnam and Ukraine, Kenya, Morocco and South Africa are among the top five countries in the world in terms of their share of the GDP invested in renewable energy (RE) capacity in 2018 (Statista 2021), whose average level was twice that of Sweden and China, three times that of Denmark, eight times the US, and ten times Germany that year. While all three countries enjoy significant RE endowments in terms of solar, wind, and /or geothermal potential, this factor alone is clearly insufficient for explaining the contrasts with each country’s immediate regional neighbours. Rather, this paper seeks to understand how these emerging economies from different African regions attained this prominent position in terms of changes in three variables: (1) each country’s respective constellation of domestic forces; (2) their institutional configurations, and (3) their transnational relations and investor profiles. Given that Africa is the region with the lowest level of annual RE financial commitments per capita (IRENA 2020), despite high endowment potential, the paper assesses the extent to which these countries’ underpinnings of investment success may be replicated across the continent. It concludes by investigating some emergent social, economic and political changes, in the context of highly contested and uneven processes of democratization, that these countries’ RE investment strategies are yielding. IRENA (2020). Annual financial commitments to renewable energy, 2013-8, by region; accessible at: https://www.irena.org/Statistics/View-Data-by-Topic/Finance-and-Investment/Investment-Trends Statista (2021). Investment in renewable energy capacity as a share of the GDP worldwide in 2018. Accessible at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/572121/global-renewable-capacity-investment-share-per-gdp/