Patterns behind the termination of careers of immigrant-origin MPs in German parliaments

Although the share of immigrant-origin (IO) MPs in German parliaments has been steadily increasing over time, this group is still underrepresented in numbers. While an IO may be of advandtage or disadvantage in the nomination and (re-)election process, a releatively high share of IO candidates are elected. Yet, many legislative careers of IO MPs end just after one legislative term. In this paper we explore the cases and the factors that favor (or reduce) the reelection chances of IO MPs in the German Bundestag and in the German state (Länder) parliaments 2012-2021. We explore a novel dataset which has been collected and captures all German IO MPs on federal and state level until 2021 (REPCHANCE). Applying a longitudinal research design, we typify drop-outs and extract the most relevant variables to predict reelection success or failure. Our results contribute to our understanding of both minority-specific and general factors in the understanding of career pathways.