Citizens' Attitudes to the European Union after the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine: A case of a Rally Effect?

How has the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia affected European citizens' attitudes to the European Union? Did citizens become more supportive of this supranational political system or has the war in Ukraine had no effect? Or did the war even lead to less support? According to existing literature on public opinion during foreign policy crises, such crises often lead to a rally effect - a sudden, often patriotic, increase of support for the political system and its representatives. While this phenomenon is well documented in nation states, there is little research on whether this phenomenon exists for the supranational political system of the EU. Studies examining the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on attitudes to the EU show that the onset of the pandemic did lead to a temporary increase in support for the EU. However, does a genuine foreign policy crisis lead to a rally effect in Europeans' attitudes to the EU? And how does the change in attitudes vary across various groups of citizens? I explore these research questions by analyzing panel survey data from selected European countries as well as survey data from the Eurobarometer. I find that the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine did, indeed, lead to a rally effect in attitudes to the EU and that individuals who are older, less educated, and more Eurosceptic increased their support to a greater degree. These results imply that - similar to a national political system - the EU has the ability to inspire patriotic attitudes among its citizens.