EU return cooperation with (non-)democratic states: What is the impact of the informalisation trend?

Does the EU’s informalisation of return risk undermining norms of liberal democracy both within itself and in origin states of varying democratic quality? The European Union and its member states have made cooperation on return a central aspect of their external migration policy with third countries. Until the early 2010s, the EU and its member states predominantly approached third countries with legally binding readmission agreements. However, many third countries were reluctant to conclude such an agreement. At least since 2015, the cooperation has therefore increasingly moved towards informal and non-binding readmission arrangements, with countries all over the world. To date, the EU has concluded six of these arrangements with countries in Asia and Africa; while member states have concluded almost 200 of them. This is part of an ‘informalisation trend’ in EU migration politics. This article analyses this informalisation trend with a particular focus on the democratic quality of third countries. The EU’s cooperation with third countries on return has been a particularly contentious issue if such a country does not adhere to democratic standards. And yet, the focus on return has become a priority for the EU and the member states, thereby posing the question on whether the concerns over democracy and civil rights in the potential partner country are sidelined. In this article we are looking at the return cooperation between EU, member states and all third countries from 2008 to 2021 and (statistically) compare the levels of cooperation with the democratic quality in the third country. We look at both formal and informal readmission cooperation and actual return data. In doing so, we reveal the influence of democracy for the informal cooperation on return with third countries. Our results show that the level of democracy can explain the conclusion of a return arrangement, yet not the lack of actual cooperation. We thus question whether the EU’s informalisation trend is a means to foster cooperation on return with third countries.