The effect of macro-economic shocks on the public’ redistributive preferences: assessing the moderating role of trust

While there is consensus on the fact that redistributive preferences change depending on the macroeconomic situation, it remains unclear whether in times of economic crisis public opinion shifts to a greater or a lower support of redistribution. In this paper, I will address this question, proposing a new hypothesis: the moderating role of interpersonal and institutional trust . I argue that individuals trusting other citizens and political institutions will react to the economic downturn by increasing their support for redistribution, while those mistrusting them will reduce it, because they will consider that both welfare recipients and the government will misuse the money, therefore preferring keeping money for themselves instead of paying more taxes. To assess this hypothesis, I will use rounds 1 to 10 of the European Social Survey, combined with data from the IMF and Eurostat for the macroeconomic information.