Are politicians better at understanding public opinion when it really matters?

Several recent papers have established that political elites are poor at estimating public opinion on issues. However, we know that different issues are not equally important to voters. If political elites need to be aware of public opinion to avoid future electoral censure, then it is most important for them to be aware of public opinion on issues of greater salience, i.e. where their actions on an issue are most likely to affect their future electoral support. In this paper, we draw on data from surveys with politicians in five countries to investigate whether recent findings of politicians’ poor perceptual accuracy mask the possibility that political elites have greater knowledge of public opinion on more salient issues.