Building public support for Article 5: Lessons of a survey experiment from Hungary

This study presents the results of a survey experiment carried out in an in-person, national, representative poll in Hungary in March 2023 (N=1000). Our main dependent variable was the respondents’ support for Hungarian military assistance to a NATO ally (Estonia) if it was attacked by Russia. Our experimental manipulation was “priming for reciprocity”. This manipulation (a survey question) aimed to remind respondents that the protection provided by NATO is about mutual obligations and that Hungary can count on its allies. Result show that priming had no significant effect within the whole sample, but it had significant conditional effects. Attitudes toward NATO determined the direction of these conditional effects. Priming significantly increased support for Hungarian military assistance to Estonia among “pro-NATO” respondents. It had an opposite effect among those who would vote for Hungary leaving the military alliance if a referendum were held.