Perceptions of the EU in MENA Public Opinion: The Impact of Perceived Double Standards and Geopolitical Competition

This article examines changes in perceptions of the EU and European states (henceforth EUrope) among MENA publics over the period 2006 – 2025, contrasting it with perceptions of other major international actors, including China, the US, Turkey and the Gulf states. Our point of departure is that opinions and perceptions of publics outside the West, while reported in think tank and other commentary, is underutilized in IR research. Thus, this paper “decenters” public opinion research in international relations. Relying on Arab Barometer survey data in combination with other surveys such as the Afrobarometer (covering Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) as well as relevant surveys conducted by EU Neighbours South, the Pew Research Center and the World Values Survey (WVS), it traces how salient international events (the 2015 refugee ‘crisis’, the Ukraine War, the Gaza War) have impacted MENA public opinion vis-à-vis EUrope. Our empirical overview shows that there is a decline in favourable perceptions of EUrope, and analyzes this in terms of changes in soft power in a postcolonial relationship. The aims of the article are thus threefold: first, to trace the evolution of perceptions; second, to analyze possible causes for observed changes, and third, to discuss the empirical findings in terms of European soft power. Soft power will be linked to postcolonialism, analysing how the postcolonial relationship affects European soft power over time.