Measuring Strategic Autonomy: Valid Indicators and Institutionalization in EU Defense Governance

The EU's strategic autonomy in defense and security remains a subject of extensive debate. However, it is inadequately operationalized. Autonomy is framed as the EU’s ability to act independently in defense. Yet, current governance practices lack robust mechanisms to track progress. Instruments such as CARD, EDF, and PESCO are designed to enhance autonomy. These tools suffer from a deficiency of validated indicators for interoperability, readiness, and sustainability. Existing assessment procedures are fragmented. This hinders benchmarking and auditability. As a result, there is a gap between conceptual ambition and empirical rigor. Prevailing scholarship prioritizes normative and institutional aspects. However, it neglects measurement validity and indicator institutionalization, leaving ambition-setting largely rhetorical. This paper addresses that gap by asking: Which indicators demonstrate construct and criterion validity for measuring EU defense autonomy? How can these be formalized within EU planning and periodic assessments? Drawing on measurement theory and institutionalist perspectives, the study uses secondary sources from official EU documents (EDF calls, CARD reviews, PESCO progress reports, and Strategic Compass) to construct a validity framework and delineate institutional pathways for embedding indicators into governance cycles. The contribution is twofold. First, it designs a measurement validity framework for autonomy indicators. Second, it conceptualizes inclusion protocols that enable metrics to gain legitimacy within EU governance. This approach consolidates the empirical foundations of autonomy debates and facilitates transparent recalibration. Embedding valid indicators is essential for sustaining political support and operational preparedness. This is especially important in a fragmented geopolitical landscape and amid inconsistent allied defense commitments.