Electoral Behaviour of Cross-Pressured Voters: A Consideration Set Approach

How do voters with conflicting economic and cultural attitudes navigate their electoral choices? While existing research has illuminated how such attitudinal cross-pressures shape vote choice and how voters cope with them, we know far less about which parties these voters actually consider before their final decision. This paper investigates the electoral behaviour of cross-pressured voters through the lens of the consideration set approach. It links attitudinal incongruence to individual-level electoral volatility, arguing that cross-pressured voters maintain broader and more ideologically diverse consideration sets, which in turn increase the likelihood of (inter bloc) vote switching. Yet this relationship is shaped by the structure of party supply. When congruent options exist, cross-pressures tend to be electorally contained; when they are absent, voters face wider choice sets and rely more heavily on short-term cues. Drawing on time-series cross-sectional and panel survey data, the paper tests these expectations and develops a dynamic framework connecting attitudinal conflict, party-system structure, and electoral instability in Western European multi-party contexts.