Trump 2.0 and the Evolution of China–Russia Relations During the War in Ukraine

This article examines how the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2025 has reshaped the strategic dynamics of China–Russia relations amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. The study adopts a triangular perspective to assess how Trump 2.0 has altered the strategic incentives of Washington, Moscow, and Beijing. The analysis is grounded in Strategic Triangle Theory, drawing on the work of Lowell Dittmer, which conceptualizes great-power relations through configurations such as “stable marriage,” “romantic triangle,” and “ménage à trois.” This framework allows for a dynamic assessment of shifting alignments under conditions of war and leadership change. The war in Ukraine is conceptualized not only as a battlefield but also as a geopolitical chessboard, where Russia functions simultaneously as a player and a strategic piece, while China and the United States act as principal players shaping the triangular structure.The article first outlines the nature of China–Russia relations prior to Trump 2.0, highlighting a pragmatic alignment driven by shared opposition to U.S. dominance but constrained by power asymmetries and divergent long-term interests. It then examines how early Trump 2.0 policies marked by transactional diplomacy, direct engagement with Moscow, and heightened competition with China have reshaped U.S.–Russia and U.S.–China relations. Finally, the article explores four potential future configurations: (1) the continuation of a stable China–Russia “marriage,” (2) a romantic triangle with Russia as the pivot, (3) a romantic triangle with the United States as the pivot following Russian military decline, and (4) a ménage à trois configuration. Together, these scenarios underscore how Trump 2.0 introduces heightened uncertainty into great-power relations, reshaping the China–Russia partnership and challenging established patterns of U.S. international leadership.