The Candidate Factory: Technological Change and Political Supply

The transition from industrial to post-industrial societies is reshaping political landscapes, with studies documenting a decline in working-class representation. This paper provides a structural explanation for the changing composition of political elites, focusing on the role of technological advancements such as automation and robotization. I argue that the distributional effects of automation play a key role in shaping political representation. Specifically, I theorize that automation alters the distribution of economic resources and opportunities across occupations, influencing who runs for office. I propose that those most negatively affected by automation, particularly individuals from working-class or automatable backgrounds, are increasingly underrepresented among political candidates. This research explores the impact of material changes on political candidacy, drawing on data from U.S. state legislatures, local offices in California, and representative surveys. The findings reveal that in areas with higher exposure to automation, there is a notable decline in candidates from occupations most affected by robotization. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the structural factors shaping the supply of political candidates and their implications for representation and policy outcomes.