Path Dependence in Crisis: Historical Political Norms and Government Responses to COVID-19

How do historical political norms shape contemporary crisis governance in democracies? This article investigates the enduring influence of past regime types and civil society strength on the stringency and effectiveness of COVID-19 containment policies. Drawing on research of historical political analysis, I argue that norms formed under authoritarian regimes and in robust civil societies produce heuristic shortcuts for policymakers and citizens in times of uncertainty. Using Bayesian multilevel modeling and panel data from 31 countries over three years, the study shows that a legacy of authoritarian rule is associated with more stringent public health measures and lower excess mortality, while strong historical civil societies correlate with laxer policies and higher mortality. These findings suggest that normative legacies—not just contemporary regime characteristics—play a critical role in shaping policy outputs and outcomes. The analysis contributes to debates on crisis response, democratic resilience, and the long-term political consequences of past governance.