The Unpredictability of Personalized Decision-Making and the Predictability of the Consequences for the International System. The Trump 2.0 Presidency

Gorm Rye Olsen, Roskilde University The unpredictability of personalized decision-making and the predictability of the consequences for the international power structures. The Trump 2.0 Presidency Donald Trump’s second presidency has conducted a foreign policy that is surprisingly interventionist if compared with his promises of pursuing an ‘American First’ and ‘Make America Great Again’ policy. It is the argument of the paper that the highly interventionist policy of the Trump 2.0 Presidency reveals two significant trends. First, there is a surprising willingness to use military force in situations where the risks involved are minimal. It is illustrated by the intervention in Venezuela, the bombings of Iran’s nuclear facilities and the bombing of the Houthi militia in Yemen. Second, there is a deliberate willingness to try destroying the main features of the existing liberal international order. It is illustrated by the attempts to circumvent the traditional diplomatic traditions and exchange them with personalized deals and agreements. The attacks on the liberal international system comprise the absence of respect for state sovereignty and exchange it with economic deals or business deals between state leaders. The emerging international system is increasingly linked to new forms of legitimation of the exercise of power. In the case of Donald Trump, they are related to his unique personal qualifications. Theoretically, the paper suggests that the foreign policy of the Trump 2.0 administration is based on a special type of decision-making described as ‘court politics’ characterized by the strong influence of the leader and his ideas. The concept is inspired by the theoretical debate about influence of elites on decision-making. To promote the analysis of the emerging international order under Trump 2.0, the paper introduces the concept ‘neo-royalism’ which refers to the aim that international relations should be influenced by personal relations in contrast to the liberal international order that builds on law and state relations. The court politics of Donald Trump results in unpredictable decisions which contribute to pushing the development of a new and different international system, a ‘neo-royal’ system.