The Intersection of Trade, Climate, and Industrial Policy: A Comparative Study of Public Perceptions and Policy Narratives in Five EU Countries

Public debate on trade often depicts it as environmentally harmful and economically ambivalent. The purpose of this paper is to systematically analyse policy narratives at the intersection of trade, climate and industrial policy (TCI) as these narratives collectively constrain the policy space for effective industrial decarbonisation policies. To this end, we examine public perceptions of trade’s environmental and economic impacts and the implications for policies that intend to mobilise industrial decarbonisation. We analyse narratives across five EU countries (Greece, Germany, Poland, Sweden, Netherlands) by systematically screening leading broadsheets and tabloids as well as European outlets. We inductively examine media coverage from 2015-2025 around key events and processes (e.g. EU Green Deal, CBAM, trade agreements, supply-chain shocks, tariff conflicts, competitiveness). Methodologically, we employ the Narrative Policy Framework. As such, we first identify relevant media articles which are then coded with MAXQDA along elements such as plots, characters, setting, moral, framing, themes and policies. The results of this analysis will be compared and discussed across countries. First results show significant differences in media coverage and public perception which can be interpreted as a reflection of what is depicted as relevant in each country (e.g. decline of car industry in Germany, shipping sector in Greece). As such, the research sheds light on how EU and national policy on the TCI nexus is perceived and discussed in the media in light of a changing geopolitical landscape over the last 10 years. Furthermore, the research aims to enhance understanding on how to improve democratic resilience and legitimacy in light of decarbonisation combined with times of multiple crises.