Who’s In and Who’s Out? Diverging Accession Outcomes in the BRICS 2023-24 Enlargement: Evidence from Egypt and Algeria

Amid intensifying contestation of the Western-led international order and growing uncertainty about the future of multilateral governance, the BRICS have become a key arena for cooperation among major non-Western powers and leading emerging economies. While scholarship has primarily focused on the drivers of BRICS formation and the group’s role in redefining the international order, systematic research on enlargement processes – especially the 2023-2024 expansion – remains limited. The absence of defined, transparent criteria for joining BRICS obscures understanding of the reasons behind the admission or exclusion of potential members. It is against this backdrop that the bloc’s 2023–2024 enlargement – a major shift in its membership composition – produced a striking divergence: after formally applying for BRICS membership, Egypt was granted accession, whereas Algeria was not. This paper tackles this gap by comparing Egypt’s and Algeria’s diverging paths vis-à-vis the 2023-2024 enlargement round. We address two main questions: 1) What motivated Cairo and Algiers to pursue BRICS membership, and to what extent did applicant-side attributes determine Egypt’s admission and Algeria’s exclusion? 2) Which intra-bloc dynamics shaped these different outcomes? Through the Egyptian and Algerian cases, we test the claim that alignments and disagreements among BRICS states – rather than applicant attributes alone – are decisive in negotiations over membership. We conceptualise intra-bloc dynamics as bargaining under a consensus-based admission practice, where pivotal members of the BRICS (namely Russia and China) can sponsor applicants but cannot secure accession unilaterally. Enlargement outcomes, therefore, depend on coalition-building among BRICS members and on whether key actors converge on the geopolitical, economic, or strategic implications of admitting a new member. Ultimately, our hypothesis is that pivotal-member sponsorship (and its limits) helps explain why Egypt acceded to the bloc while Algeria did not. Empirically, the study combines qualitative content analysis of BRICS summit declarations/communiqués, foreign ministry statements, and official press releases on enlargement negotiations – with a focus on Russian and Chinese positions – with semi-structured interviews with Egyptian and Algerian policymakers who participated in discussions surrounding the 2023–2024 expansion. The paper contributes to debates on global governance in the post-hegemonic era, South–South cooperation, and decision-making dynamics within the BRICS. It also offers a regional vantage point on how multipolar contestation is institutionalised and with what consequences for states on the periphery of great-power rivalry. Finally, it sheds light on how Russia’s and China’s advocacy interact in shaping BRICS enlargement outcomes.