The Politics of Green Steel: Comparing German and Chinese Standards Through Power and Institutional Lega-Cies

As the global steel industry – responsible for ~8% of global GHG emissions – targets deep decar-bonization, international "low-emission steel" standards have become a critical frontier of econom-ic statecraft. This paper compares two burgeoning frameworks: the German Steelmakers Associa-tion’s Low-Emission Steel Standard (LESS) and the China Iron & Steel Association’s Methods for the Assessment of Decarbonized Ecological Future-Oriented Steel. Using Mattli and Büthe’s (2003) framework, we analyze these standards through three lenses. First, we examine technological rationality, noting that the two standards are technically very similar; both rely on a "sliding scale" approach that differentiates green steel thresholds based on the share of scrap used, with marginal differences remaining in how system boundaries are de-fined. Second, we investigate institutional legacies, noting that while the development process-es in both jurisdictions were relatively similar – characterized by close collaboration between indus-try and government – they diverged in leadership and transparency. In Germany, industry demon-strated strong leadership within a more deliberative process, whereas the Chinese standard fol-lowed a less transparent and more hierarchical approach. Third, we apply a realist perspective to argue that this divergence represents a complex "Battle of the Sexes" problem. Given the dom-inance of primary steelmaking in both countries, Germany and China share a preference for "slid-ing scale" standards over the single carbon footprint thresholds favored by the US and secondary steelmakers in Europe. A world of competing, fragmented standards is also undesirable due to high transaction costs and market paralysis. The conflict thus centers on who can dominate: Chi-na leverages its supply-side dominance, while Germany/EU leverage the demand-side market power of early green steel "lead markets." A critical variable remains whether interests seeking to use standards as protective barriers against Chinese exports will prevail over those aiming to genuinely kickstart global green steel markets. Our analysis suggests that technical convergence between the two standards is possi-ble, positioning them to jointly establish a global benchmark. The primary roadblock is not tech-nical specification, but rather whether both parties can agree on a shared governance structure, including monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) and compliance systems trusted by all stakeholders.