Backlash Against Green Industrial Policy? The Acceptability of Solar Parks, Hydrogen Plants and Battery Factories in Four European Countries

As climate mitigation measures become deeper and more ambitious, they also affect citizens more strongly. This, in turn, increases the risk of a backlash against these measures, as they often have repercussions well beyond their climate objectives. Much research has already highlighted backlash effects regarding less popular policies (such as congestion charging, car-free zones, or carbon taxes) and large renewable energy infrastructures (such as onshore or offshore wind installations). This paper examine the case of energy infrastructures whose backlash potential has been studied less, but which are among the top green infrastructure investment projects: solar parks, hydrogen plants, and battery factories. Through a bespoke survey experiment in four national contexts (Germany, France, the UK, and Norway), we assess citizens’ acceptance of these infrastructures and the extent to which it is affected by local democracy guarantees and local benefits schemes. Using an unpopular fuel tax policy as a benchmark, we assess whether and if so under what conditions an electoral backlash occurs when citizens’ preferences are contradicted. Finally, we look at how the electoral backlash to green infrastructure varies by societal subgroups, such as citizens with a 'yellow-vest' profile (i.e., less-educated ruralites), with a toxic male profile (i.e., hyper-masculine sexists), or with a TAN rather than GAL profile.