Negotiating Uncertainty: Scientific Knowledge and Policy-Making in Germany’s National Biodiversity Strategy

Biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate, prompting the urgent need for effective policy responses. To inform policy decisions, scientists employ ecosystem models to map ecological processes and predict outcomes, such as species population trends and the impacts of climate change. However, these scientific models are inherently shaped by epistemic and ontological uncertainties. This paper examines the role of these uncertainties in the policy process by focusing on the German national biodiversity strategy (NBS 2030) as a single case study. Through process tracing, the study explores how scientific evidence - steeped in uncertainty - is integrated into policy decisions, and in how far uncertainty itself is strategically employed within the policy process. The research uses a combination of document analysis and expert interviews, grounding the analysis in Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework to understand the interplay between scientific knowledge, political dynamics, and decision-making. The paper contributes to the broader literature on the science–policy nexus by offering insights into the negotiation of uncertainty in environmental policy-making, a policy field characterized by limited political visibility and public attention.