Why Vary on the Environment? Explaining Nationalist Parties’ Engagement Patterns

While many scholars argue that nationalism-based environmentalism is largely a relic of the past, the contemporary landscape of nationalist parties reveals considerable variation in their stances toward environmental dilemmas, ranging from outright climate denialism to expressed concern. Consequently, the paper addresses the following research question: which factors influence whether nationalist parties engage with the environment? Competing explanations attribute cross-party variation either to exogeneous factors – such as electoral rules – or to endogenous ones, like the perceived salience of environmental issues. Nevertheless, existing research on eco- nationalism is dominated by qualitative and comparative case studies. To get a more general understanding of nationalist parties’ environmental engagement, this paper relies on a quantitative approach. The explanatory power of the above-mentioned variables is tested on a large dataset using Manifesto Project data to identify cross-country patterns. The paper hypothesizes that nationalist parties are more likely to open toward environmental issues in proportional electoral systems which are generally considered to be more competitive. Additionally, it is anticipated that nationalist parties engage with the environment for expected electoral benefits. Preliminary findings indicate that nationalist parties do not gain electorally from emphasizing environmental issues and may even risk losing voters when doing so. Yet some nonetheless attempt to “ride the wave” by adjusting their positions in response to rising environmental salience: as green parties gain electoral strength, nationalist parties also tend to increase their emphasis on environmental themes. Moreover, initial results show that – quite counterintuitively – stronger emphasis on core nationalist issues, notably immigration, is associated with greater attention to environmental protection. This suggests an exclusionary “the boat is full” type of framing that incorporates environmental concern into nationalist narratives. Accounting for these surprising patterns provides broader insights into nationalist parties’ behavior and responses to environmental issues. In doing so, it opens up new avenues for future research into right-wing political actors’ accommodative or adversarial stances toward contemporary ecological challenges.