Time Makes a Fool of Us All? Declining Homeownership Trends for Young Adults in OECD Countries, 1970–2022

Young adults today appear to face difficulties in purchasing their first home, but has this become more challenging than it was in previous decades? This article examines age differences in the probability of homeownership across 20 OECD countries over time. Drawing on a two-by-two housing regime typology based on countries’ promotion of homeownership versus renting and households’ reliance on mortgage markets, I formulate four hypotheses about how age is expected to affect homeownership probability within and across countries. To analyse these housing regime differences, I use time-series cross-sectional microdata from the Luxembourg Income Study, covering the period from the 1970s to 2022. Preliminary findings reveal that while age positively influences the likelihood of becoming a homeowner, the effect appears to diminish with each passing year, suggesting that young adults must now wait longer to reach the same levels of homeownership that previous generations achieved at earlier ages.