The Geoeconomics of Fertiliser Production: How Morocco’s OCP Group Reshapes Global Power Dynamics and Regional Development

Fertilizer is one of the key-inputs into industrial agriculture and its consumption has been increasing in the last decades. It is of crucial importance in providing food security and a strategic asset for those countries who possess it. At the same time, fertilizer production is highly concentrated both geographically and in terms of market power, given that relatively few countries and firms control access to its key technologies and components – nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. Currently, while the most powerful companies are located in North America, Europe, Russia and China, new players in the Global South are emerging, potentially re-shaping political and economic power dynamics. A particularly striking case it the rise of Morocco’s state-owned fertilizer producer OCP Group, which has already become the fifth largest fertilizer exporter in the world, making it an important actor both globally and regionally with investments across the African continent. Morocco is in a unique position to shape global fertilizer supply chains as it claims sovereignty over Western Sahara, where it is estimated that around 70 percent of global phosphate deposits are located. Control over resources and economic expansion are thus already shaping geopolitical conflicts and reshaping market structures. With tight trade relationships and partnerships (including the use of green hydrogen to produce green ammonia) with other African countries, OCP’s fertiliser production has the potential to support industrial development in the region, increase regional independence and achieve African “fertilizer autonomy”. In light of these emerging dynamics, the paper explores three inter-related questions: (1) How does the OCP Group and Morocco’s industrial policy reshape the geoeconomics of the global fertiliser market? (2) What are opportunities and constraints/contradictions in Morocco’s industrial policy to succeed in achieving industrial development, strategic fertilizer autonomy and food security in Africa? (3) How does OCP’s strategy shape the livelihoods and working conditions of African farmers? Methodologically, the paper is based on a multi-sited study, analyzing both the largest fertilizer firms globally (US, Canada, Europe, Russia, China) – thus exploring how geopolitics and (corporate) power shape the food provision systems – and how African countries are pursuing strategies to increase their autonomy in light of global power structures. To capture geo-economic competition, global food markets and industrial policy dynamics, the paper combines the literatures on International Political Economy, Food Systems as well as the Developmental State and Global Value Chains literatures.