From Transnational Cohesion to National Proximity: Shifting Ideological Alignments in the European Parliament After 2024

The study investigates whether the long-standing political center of the European Parliament, symbolized by the European People’s Party, has moved ideologically closer to national-conservative and traditionalist positions after the 2024 elections. We ask whether national parties within the EPP and other centrist groups exhibit increasing alignment along the Traditional–Authoritarian–Nationalist pole of the widely accepted GAL/TAN cleavage. To assess this potential realignment, the research employs quantitative statistical analysis based on VAA datasets developed by the European University Institute for the 2014, 2019, and 2024 EP elections. These datasets provide systematically coded party positions on key policy statements across multiple issue dimensions, allowing for cross-sectional comparability and longitudinal consistency. Preliminary results suggest that the average ideological position of the EPP has shifted significantly toward the TAN pole between 2014 and 2024, reflecting a growing convergence of national member parties around nationalist, protectionist, and traditionalist themes. This trend indicates a partial erosion of transnational ideological cohesion within centrist groups, pointing to the emergence of new national-conservative alliances that challenge the proclaimed centrist unity of the EPP–S&D–Renew bloc.