Changes of Renewable Energy Investment Risks Over Time in Morocco and South Africa

This paper will explore the evolution of the risk factors for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind investment in Morocco and South Africa since 2014 and how these factors have impacted the two countries’ position during the “middle phase” of the energy transition. This analysis will use a framework derived from Egli (2020) and tailored to the latecomer-market context through a combination of literature review and exploratory semi-structured interviews with investors, banks, and policymakers, to identify the most important barriers to renewable energy project investments. More in-depth interviews with the same groups, complemented by policy document analysis and project-level financing data, will then be used to assess how these barriers have changed and what drove those changes. The years of analysis will be 2014, 2019, and 2024, corresponding respectively to the early phase of RE market entrance, the institutional consolidation around MASEN and REIPPPP, and the current stage of market competitiveness. By linking shifting risk perceptions to economic and policy changes, this study can help understand how institutional and market changes impact renewable energy investment barriers, as well as the drivers of changes in these barriers. This research also contributes to understanding how the sequencing of de-risking measures, regulatory reforms, and market-design choices shapes the trajectory of renewable investment once initial deployment and market competitiveness are established. Reference Egli, F. (2020). Renewable energy investment risk: An investigation of changes over time and the underlying drivers. Energy Policy, 140, 111428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111428