Mapping the Winners: A Framework for Analyzing Distributional Gains in Clean Energy Supply Chains

Climate-economic analysis has historically emphasized the costs and burdens of decarbonization, identifying which sectors, regions, and households bear transition costs. This framing shaped decades of policy debate around burden-sharing and compensation for losers. Yet as clean energy industries have scaled and major economies have deployed industrial policy to capture transition benefits, understanding who gains from climate action has become at least as consequential as understanding who loses. This paper argues that systematically mapping the distribution of gains along clean energy supply chains is a necessary foundation for analyzing geoeconomic strategy and economic statecraft in the emerging clean energy order. We propose a framework for identifying where value accrues in clean technology production networks, distinguishing three dimensions of gains: value-added capture at supply chain nodes, market concentration and bottleneck control, and dependency asymmetries that create leverage. Value-added capture traces where economic returns concentrate across extraction, processing, component manufacturing, and system integration. Bottleneck control identifies nodes where market power enables price-setting or supply restriction. Dependency asymmetries reveal which actors hold leverage over others by virtue of their supply chain position, and which remain exposed to disruption or coercion. To motivate the framework and demonstrate tractability, we draw on existing supply chain assessments, trade data, and industry analyses for solar PV, batteries, and critical minerals. This illustrative analysis reveals stark concentration at processing and manufacturing stages: a handful of economies dominate polysilicon, cathode materials, and rare earth processing, while resource-holding countries often remain confined to low-value extraction. These patterns are not merely outcomes to be evaluated normatively; they constitute the strategic terrain on which geoeconomic competition now unfolds. We then consider how this distributional landscape shapes strategic options for differently positioned actors. Emerging economies and middle powers have deployed diverse instruments to alter their supply chain positions: export restrictions to force domestic processing, production-linked incentives for manufacturing, reforms to mineral governance regimes, and strategic positioning in emerging sectors like green hydrogen. Established powers have responded with friend-shoring initiatives, bilateral critical minerals agreements, and domestic content requirements. The framework helps clarify what these actors are competing over and what repositioning would require, regardless of how specific policy instruments evolve. The paper concludes by identifying open questions for the emerging research agenda on clean energy geoeconomics: Under what conditions can resource holders translate extraction into processing and manufacturing capacity? How do trade measures and industrial policy interact to reshape supply chain geography? How might current concentration patterns evolve under alternative technology and policy futures? We outline how the framework could be extended through scenario-based modeling to explore these dynamics prospectively, connecting supply chain analysis to the forward-looking tools of energy systems research.