This paper explores the demographic frames used by populist radical right in Central and Eastern Europe and analyses how they have changed across a series of distinct geopolitical phases, dating from 2015-2024.
Designed to increase the total fertility rate (TFR), pro-natalism encourages procreation and often rewards families for their contribution to preserving the nation. Often presented as a flagship policy of the populist radical right, this paper analyses how these policies are framed. It argues that demographic policy is communicated not merely as social policy, but as an existential response to national decline. Building on a framework which incorporates Nostalgia, Native Othering and Securitisation frames, I identify the principal policy frame, “Existential Nostalgic Natalism” and explore the ways in which PiS (Poland), EKRE (Estonia) and Fidesz (Hungary) have tailored variants of the frame. The analysis is conducted at the sub-frame level, examining how specific narratives and emotional appeals are deployed.
I also explore qualitative shifts within each party’s “Existential Nostalgic Natalism” frame and map these shifts onto key geopolitical phases, ranging from the 2015–16 ‘migrant crisis’ to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Within this paper, I am particularly interested in how nostalgia and securitisation narratives are recalibrated in response to external shocks. For this purpose, I trace these shifts and evaluate the political pressures and opportunities faced by each party.
Investigating the reasons for these adjustments, this paper offers explanations on three levels: firstly, direct geopolitical responsiveness; secondly, historical legacies and contextual constraints; and finally, cross-party learning within the broader populist radical right network. By mapping these framing and reframing practices, this paper aims to: 1) demonstrate how socio-cultural policy narratives shift in line with geopolitical crises; and 2) assess how political actors adapt their communication strategies not only in directly affected policy areas, but also indirectly within the socio-cultural sphere – in this instance, pro-natalism.
Methods: This paper applies a sequential design featuring discourse analysis of populist-authored press statements and visual analysis of social media content. The first stage involves an iterative coding process identifying sub-frames, narratives, and emotional appeals within the material, before establishing the principal policy frame “Existential Nostalgic Natalism” and its core components. Thereafter, qualitative shifts were mapped across identified geopolitical phases. Following the desk-based analysis, the characteristic features of the frame were triangulated via a series of semi-structured elite interviews. These interviews provided contextual insight and assessed the extent of geopolitical responsiveness across cases, thereby strengthening and refining the findings of the textual analysis.
