Misaligned Trust: How the Gap Between Social Trust, Trust in Government and Trust in Companies Shapes Democracy

Trust misalignment is the degree of divergence among citizens' trust in each other, government, and companies. We develop and operationalise the concept of trust misalignment and assess its effects on democratic outcomes. We demonstrate that the alignment of trust, and not merely its overall levels, shapes democratic outcomes. Drawing on World Values Survey data spanning 103 countries from 1996 to 2022, we operationalise trust misalignment as three pairwise continuous measures and examine their effects on eleven democratic outcome variables. We find that trust misalignment is a significant determinant of democratic outcomes, even when controlling for trust levels. Misalignment between trust in government and social trust is the strongest predictor of democratic outcomes, with effects strengthening over time and amplified in higher overall trust countries. Reverse causality tests find no evidence that democratic outcomes predict future trust misalignment. We conclude that trust misalignment is a consequential and undertheorized dimension of social and institutional capital with lasting implications for democratic governance.