Climate Change and the Economic Geography of Political Conflict

Abstract

Presenters: Lisa Dellmuth, Stockholm University Evelina Jonsson, Stockholm University Theodoros Ntounias, University of California Christina Schneider, University of California Discussant: Leonardo Baccini, McGill University Abstract: Climate change poses a growing challenge to democracies, as the economic consequences of extreme weather events become increasingly severe. While prior research shows that climate shocks can erode support for incumbent parties, much less is known about how they shape broader patterns of political competition across geographies. We argue that climate disasters trigger electoral realignments away from mainstream parties, and that the direction of this shift depends on the geography of economic exposure. Where voters are left to bear the financial burden of disasters—due to limited insurance or compensation—they are more likely to punish incumbents and shift support toward populist parties that channel discontent through anti-elite and anti-system appeals. Green parties also gain modestly following climate shocks, but these gains are concentrated in wealthier regions and are not amplified by personal exposure to economic losses. We test these claims using novel subnational data on insured disaster losses and electoral outcomes from 313 regions in 26 OECD countries (1990–2020). By foregrounding the geography of vulnerability, our analysis helps reconcile prior conflicting findings and underscores how climate change is reshaping the territorial basis of democratic contestation.