Operationalising Article 6 at COP29: New frontiers and persistent challenges for global carbon markets

Abstract

Speaker: Majid Asadnabizadeh Global carbon markets (GCMs) have become a central but controversial topic in climate negotiations since the Paris Agreement. COP29, which took place in Baku in 2024, marked an important moment to advance Article 6, which introduces international mechanisms for carbon trading. This seminar critically examines how the decisions on Articles 6.2 and 6.4 were negotiated, why progress was only partial, and what this means for global climate governance. Two guiding principles frame the analysis: environmental integrity, which requires that carbon markets deliver real emissions reductions without loopholes or double counting, and climate justice, which emphasises fairness, equity and the distributional impacts on vulnerable countries. Methodologically, the study uses issue framing, thematic document analysis and process tracing to assess negotiation dynamics. The debates at COP29 reflected the wider tensions in climate politics. Finance dominated the headlines with a new target of $300bn per year by 2035, while the adaptation talks exposed long-standing rifts between developed and developing countries. Against this backdrop, Article 6 became a testing ground for co-operative market approaches. Under Article 6.2, COP29 clarified procedures for authorisations, first transfers, registries and reporting formats, but there are still gaps in safeguards, standardisation and fragmentation. Under Article 6.4, progress was made on crediting rules, registry systems and the transition of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), although uncertainties remain regarding authorisations, deadlines and market liquidity. The results show that while COP29 brought technical progress, it left key political dilemmas unresolved. There is a risk that carbon markets will become fragmented and overly complex if equity and accountability are not strengthened. Looking ahead to COP30 in Brazil and the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, the credibility of Article 6 will depend on reconciling ambition and fairness.