Electoral-System Consequences and Election Integrity in Contemporary CEE Cases

Abstract

This panel examines how electoral rules and election administration shape representation, party competition, and perceived legitimacy, with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe plus a comparative anchor. Paper 1 analyzes candidate-list and presidential nomination signatures in Poland, using official National Electoral Commission resolutions to classify rejection reasons (e.g., deceased signatories, surname mismatches, address errors) and to document more direct forgery signals (photocopied lists, patterned ordering), alongside evidence on how committee staffing of district commissions relates to declared signature-gathering. Paper 2 situates Bulgaria’s 4% threshold list-PR system in an endogenous-institutions framework, using district-level election data (1991–2024) to assess how thresholds and other constraints condition party entry, persistence, and long-run fractionalization, and to compare observed dynamics with structurally similar systems while considering alternative drivers such as party finance and voter linkages. Paper 3 reports an empirically checkable case for statistical anomaly detection in Poland’s 2025 presidential election: a regression model flags polling stations for recount, enabling comparison between predicted irregularities and prosecutorial recount outcomes, and motivating refinements that clarify false-positive versus missed-error trade-offs. Paper 4 evaluates Hungary’s post-2011 mixed system—highlighting largest-party advantages, winner’s compensation, districting, threshold effects, and external-voter patterns—in light of the more competitive landscape anticipated for April 2026.

Title	Details
Statistical Detection of Errors/Fraud in Announced Election Results: Model and Its Verification. The Case of the 2025 Elections in Poland.	View Paper Details
Who Does the Mixed Electoral System Benefit? The 2026 Parliamentary Elections in Hungary	View Paper Details
Collecting and Forging Signatures in Polish Parliamentary and Presidential Elections	View Paper Details