Political Representation in Post-Crisis Portugal: Change or Continuity?

Abstract

One of the main political effects of the global crisis has been to trigger the emergence of new political actors and to boost their electoral performance. When compared to other Southern European democracies, Portugal seems to diverge in regards to the evolution of the party system, which has shown a remarkable stability. Despite the new government coalition formed after the 2015 general elections, no new actors have been able to advance electorally and to challenge the status quo. This is even more puzzling when we consider that there were many favourable conditions for the breakthrough of new forces. The overall aims of this panel are twofold. On the one hand, it seeks to revaluate the impact of the crisis on a medium or long term on the basis of new empirical evidence (see below). On the other, the panel aims to interpret and make sense of the evolution of political representation in Portugal from a comparative perspective, trying to explain why this case study departs from other Southern European countries and the impact of the new governmental solution experienced since 2015. The overall idea is that, at least so far, Portugal has experienced a combination of new dynamics and old trends. Some aspects suggest the emergence of 'democratic renewal', especially related to responsiveness and policy outputs. Yet, we also witness continuity, especially at the voter level. Therefore, one overarching hypothesis to be tested is that party leadership and elites may shape the form and content of political representation. In other words, top-down effects influence the linkage between party and voters. Despite economic and external constraints, electoral and political choices may be particularly meaningful in providing alternative solutions and a better representation. This panel relies on a new and original set of data from 2007 to 2017, which allows us to investigate longitudinal trends and to improve our knowledge on causal mechanisms. The three survey waves have adopted similar questionnaires and were fielded to deputies (and/or non-elected candidates) and voters in three distinct data points (2008, 2012 and 2016). The surveys include questions related to the current crisis, regime support, political trust, left-right ideology, and issue dimensions of party competition and voter identification. The themes explored in the panel will allow us not only to assess the consequences of the crisis and external conditionality, but also to test relevant theories of political representation. The originality of the data and the specificities of the political trajectory of the Portuguese party system make this case extremely valuable also at the theoretical level, allowing us to explore new themes and to reassess the validity of old ones.