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Monday 25 February – Friday 1 March, 09:00–12:30
15 hours over 5 days
Sequence analysis is the systematic descriptive and causal study of sequences; that is, successions of standard categorical states or events.
Numerous fields in the social and political sciences are concerned with sequences, including life course, the sociology of professional careers, political sociology, the evolution of regimes and elections. Yet so far, most of the applied literature in sequence analysis is limited to a few basic methods, namely descriptive sequential statistics, individual and distribution graphs, and typologies.
This course welcomes scholars from any disciplinary background, and those using any kind of research design.
You should have an interest in one or more of the following advanced topics:
I will propose a blend of published case studies and new methodological solutions.
Tasks for ECTS Credits
2 credits (pass/fail grade) Attend at least 90% of course hours, participate fully in in-class activities, and carry out the necessary reading and/or other work prior to, and after, class.
3 credits (to be graded) As above, plus write a 5,000- to 6,000-character report within two weeks after the course about how sequence analysis is contributing, and/or will contribute, to your personal research project(s).
4 credits (to be graded) As above, plus complete a take-home examination based on knowledge gained from the course, and personal readings.
Philippe Blanchard, University of Warwick, works on green politics, political communication, and methods for social and political sciences: multivariate statistics, longitudinal methods, interviewing, content analysis and digital data. He has taught methods in Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Singapore, Switzerland, the UK and the USA.
He is currently director of Warwick's BA in Politics, International Studies and Quantitative Methods and MA in Politics, Big Data & Quantitative Methods.
Philippe is the Chair of the ECPR Methods School Academic Advisory Board.
Sequence analysis is still in its infancy. Researchers engaging with it are in for an exciting journey, with plenty of room for innovation.
The best applied articles that make use of this method usually propose at least minor tweaks that adapt the existing tools to their own research questions and data.
On the other hand, a major part of the available literature does not always provide ready-to-use solutions, adequate to one’s needs, beyond the fundamentals of the 'core programme' (Gauthier, Bühlmann and Blanchard 2014): optimal matching with standard cost options, chained up with a typology and individual and distribution plots.
In this native state of the method, journals and publishers often require more than these basics to convince a wide audience in a given field that a sequential approach is relevant and fruitful.
This course addresses this gap. It fishes out best practices in the applied and method-centred sequence analysis literatures and presents them in a condensed way, together with approaches developed by Philippe. You will review existing tools and approaches, and assess their value for various kinds of projects.
Currently, a promising avenue for developments is multichannel sequence analysis (MCSA). MCSA considers each case (individuals, countries, organisations, or other human artefacts) in two or more domains (such as individuals in private and political life spheres, or countries along their successive regime types and international agreements).
The resulting sequential combinatorics is several times more complex than mono-channel sequences, but at the same time much more realistic in many research settings.
Addressing this challenge will be core to the course, through comparing, classifying, mining and graphing multichannel sequences.
We will discuss the conditions at which MCSA can be used, the kind of theory that can be tested through it, the possibility of extending existing monochannel tools to MCSA, and new tools that need to be designed specifically it. We will also discuss specific MCSA strategies for displaying results and writing up a convincing story out of it.
Philippe will present other advanced approaches and tools, valid for either monochannel and multichannel situations, depending on participants’ needs. These include:
Beyond these three options, the course may also address:
We may also devote some time to improving sequence data collection, formatting and management, all of which can be key to efficient sequence analyses, especially for larger and/or collaborative projects.
The course will rely on collaborative pedagogy. You will be asked about your research projects and puzzles beforehand, to determine which methods get prioritised. For those who wish to give one, there will be time for individual presentations, to gather feedback from the group, and possibly draw parallels between research designs, tools used and outcomes.
This course follows on from Analysing Political and Social Sequences offered at previous ECPR Methods Schools, but other introductory courses, or self-training, can meet the prerequisites.
You should be familiar with the principles of sequence analysis, and have applied them to a research project of your own.
You may have used R, Stata or any other software for your application, although this course will mainly rely on R and TraMineR.
By the end of the course, the level reached may differ between participants, but you should at very least have performed optimal matching and built a typology of sequences.
Please refer to the introductory-level readings to check or refresh your knowledge of the basics.
I will make sure the group is able to move on together on topics of a common interest to all.
By registering for this course, you confirm that you possess the knowledge required to follow it. The instructor will not teach these prerequisite items. If in doubt, contact the instructor before registering.
| Day | Topic | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | Reminders and tips for efficient basic treatments, including variations in sequence comparison methods |
Hands-on session 1 |
| Day 2 | Multiple sequence analysis I |
Hands-on session 2 |
| Day 3 | Multiple sequence analysis II |
Hands-on session 3 |
| Day 4 | Typical sequences. Smart sequential graphs |
Hands-on session 4 |
| Day 5 | Other advanced topics, or more of the above (upon demand) |
Hands-on session 5 |
| Day | Readings |
|---|---|
|
The list below gives a direction of the orientation of the course. More references will be provided and commented during the course. |
|
| Day 1 |
Refreshers (covers the basics) 1. Gauthier J.-A, F. Bühlmann and P. Blanchard. 2014. “Introduction: Sequence Analysis in 2014” Pp. 1-17 in Blanchard P., F. Bühlmann and J.-A. Gauthier (eds.). Advances in Sequence Analysis: Methods, Theories and Applications. London: Springer 2. Blanchard P. Forthcoming 2019. “Sequence analysis” in Encyclopaedia of Research Methods, Sage (will be provided by the instructor) 3. An introductory course in R, for example: Venables W. N., D. M. Smith and the R Development Core Team. 2011. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Reference Index, http://cran.r-project.org/doc/manuals/R-intro.pdf or: Crawley M. J. 2005. Statistics: An Introduction using R. Chichester: Wiley and Sons, chapters 1 and 2. or: Zuur A. F., E. N. Ieno and E. H.W.G. Meesters. A Beginner's Guide to R. Springer: Dordrecht, chapters 1 to 3. see http://www.r-project.org/doc/bib/R-books.html for more possibilities, in several languages The field of sequence analysis 4. Aisenbrey S. and A. E. Fasang. 2010. “New Life for Old Ideas: The ‘Second Wave’ of Sequence Analysis Bringing the ‘Course’ Back Into the Life Course." Sociological Methods and Research 38(3):420–462. 5. Blanchard P., F. Bühlmann and J.-A. Gauthier (eds.). Advances in Sequence Analysis: Methods, Theories and Applications. London: Springer |
| Day 2 and 3 |
Multichannel sequence analysis 6. Pollock G. 2007. Holistic trajectories: a study of combined employment, housing and family careers by using multiple-sequence analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 170, part 1: 167-183. 7. Fillieule o. and p. Blanchard. 2013. “Fighting Together. Assessing Continuity and Change in Social Movement Organizations Through the Study of Constituencies' Heterogeneity.” Pp. 79-108 in A Political Sociology of Transnational Europe, edited by N. Kauppi. Basingstoke: ECPR Press 8. Wiggins R. D., C. Erzberger, M. Hyde, P. Higgs and D. Blane. 2007. "Optimal Matching Analysis Using Ideal Types to Describe the Lifecourse: An Illustration of How Histories of Work, Partnerships and Housing Relate to Quality of Life in Early Old Age." International Journal of Social Research Methodology 10(4): 259–278. |
| Day 2 and 3 |
Multichannel sequence analysis 6. Pollock G. 2007. Holistic trajectories: a study of combined employment, housing and family careers by using multiple-sequence analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 170, part 1: 167-183. 7. Fillieule o. and p. Blanchard. 2013. “Fighting Together. Assessing Continuity and Change in Social Movement Organizations Through the Study of Constituencies' Heterogeneity.” Pp. 79-108 in A Political Sociology of Transnational Europe, edited by N. Kauppi. Basingstoke: ECPR Press 8. Wiggins R. D., C. Erzberger, M. Hyde, P. Higgs and D. Blane. 2007. "Optimal Matching Analysis Using Ideal Types to Describe the Lifecourse: An Illustration of How Histories of Work, Partnerships and Housing Relate to Quality of Life in Early Old Age." International Journal of Social Research Methodology 10(4): 259–278. |
| Day 3, 4 and 5 |
Various tools to work with typologies 9. Salmela-Aro K., N. Kiuru, J.-E. Nurmi, M. Eerola. 2001. Mapping pathways to adulthood among Finnish university students: Sequences, patterns, variations in family- and work-related roles, Advances in Life Course Research 16: 25-41 Typical sequences 10. Aassve A., Billari F. & Piccarreta R. 2007. Strings of Adulthood: A Sequence Analysis of Young British Women's Work-family Trajectories. European Journal of Population 23: 369-88 11. Gabadinho A., Ritschard G., Müller N.S. and Studer M. 2011. "Analyzing and visualizing state sequences in R with TraMineR", Journal of Statistical Software. Vol. 40 (4): 1-37 Smart graphs 12. Piccarreta R. and O. Lior. 2010. “Exploring sequences: a graphical tool based on multi-dimensional scaling.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 173 (part 1):165–184 13. Piccarreta R. 2012. “Graphical and Smoothing Techniques for Sequence Analysis”. Sociological Methods & Research 41(2): 362–380 14. Colombi D. and S. Paye. 2014. “Synchronising Sequences. An Analytic Approach to Explore Relationships Between Events and Temporal Patterns” Pp. 249-264 in Blanchard P., F. Bühlmann and J.-A. Gauthier (eds.). Advances in Sequence Analysis: Methods, Theories and Applications. London: Springer Linked and networked sequences 15. Buton F., Lemercier C. and Mariot N. 2012. The household effect on electoral participation. A contextual analysis of voter signatures from a French polling station (1982–2007), Electoral Studies 31 (2): 434-447 16. Cornwell B. 2015. Social Sequence Analysis. Methods and Applications. New York: Cambridge University Press: Chapter 6 Cases alternative to individuals 17. Abbott A. and S. Deviney. 1992. The Welfare State as Transnational Event: Evidence from Sequences of Policy Adoption. Social Science History 16 (2): 245‑274 18. Casper G. and M. Wilson. 2014. Using Sequences to Model Crises. Political Science Research and Methods 3 (2): 381-397 Linking sequences with covariates 19. Studer M., G. Ritschard, A. Gabadinho and N. S. Müller. 2011. Discrepancy Analysis of State Sequences. Sociological Methods and Research 40 (3): 471‑510
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| Friday |
Compulsory
Optional
|
R, plus the following packages (please instal prior to the course):
Please bring your own laptop
See 'Optional readings' in Day-to-Day Reading list, above.
Summer School
Analysing Political and Social Sequences
Introduction to R
Introduction to Statistics for Political and Social Scientists
Winter School
Introduction to R
Summer School
Intermediate R
Data Management with R