Experimental Research: Theory Development, Hypothesis Generation and Empirical Tests

This course is unusual in the sense that it will involve very little lecturing. Instead, we will focus squarely on students’ development of their own research ideas, interests, questions, theories, and hypotheses. We will begin by considering William J. McGuire’s post-Popperian philosophy of science and his perspectivist method of planning and implementing programmatic research in the social and behavioural sciences. The focus of this method is on creative hypothesis generation and theory building rather than on hypothesis testing and theory disconfirmation per se.

Specifically, I will ask you to complete a series of written exercises designed to clarify the conceptual foundations of your own research programmes and, in the process, develop multiple hypotheses concerning non-obvious empirical relationships among independent, dependent, mediating, and moderating variables that are of genuine theoretical interest. You will present your hypotheses to the rest of the class, and we will engage in group discussion and constructive evaluation.

We will discuss the major advantages of developing experimental programmes of research in the social and behavioural sciences, such as leveraging the method of strong inference, and the four stages of experimentation, namely:

1. setting the stage for the experiment
2. constructing the independent variable
3. measuring the dependent variable
4. planning the post-experimental follow-up.

We will work on developing meaningful operationalisations of variables, including manipulations as well as measurement strategies, and we will seek to avoid and overcome common methodological problems or 'impurities,' which can introduce interpretational (and rhetorical) threats and ambiguities. You will present your own experimental designs to the rest of the class, and we will engage in group discussion and constructive evaluation.

Based on feedback at several stages, you will work to refine your hypotheses, research designs, and experimental procedures, with the eventual long-term goal of independently conducting sophisticated, theory-driven programmes of research on interesting ideas of your own choosing.

You must have completed the first-week course Introduction to Experimental Research in the Social Sciences or obtained equivalent knowledge elsewhere.

I assume you will have already conducted your own empirical research (typically in the context of a social science PhD) and have ongoing plans to conduct research that lends itself to experimental methods.

I will ask you to present your own ideas for research, and to engage in theory building, hypothesis generation, and the design of careful, sophisticated experiments for investigating those hypotheses.

This is possible only if you are actively pursuing empirical research programmes in the social and behavioural sciences.