What Actually Happened? Analysing the 2019 Euroelections in Southern Europe

Abstract

The main aim of the panel is to offer an in-depth comparative investigation of the electoral results of the European elections of 2019. Is the second-order election model as originally formulated by Reif & Schmitt (1980) confirmed or not? Key questions for analysis include both the geographical pattern of vote (i.e. the social characteristics) and the axes of political competition (i.e the political characteristics) as well as their correlation. Furthermore, using data from election surveys, we will analyse the vote in these EP elections according to attitudes towards a number of social and demographic variables connected with the vote (or the voting intention) for each party, aiming to reveal similarities and dissimilarities from a comparative perspective. The second target is to analyse the party system, the similarities and dissimilarities in the framework of European Parties / Political Groups. Last but not least, we aim to depict possible common patterns (or their absence) in voting across Southern Europe.