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Cross-pressured Partisans. How Voters Make up their Minds when Parties and Issues Diverge

Johanna Willmann
University of Vienna
Johanna Willmann
University of Vienna

Abstract

Countless studies have observed a decline in partisanship within the past decades in the so-called advanced industrialized democracies (Dalton 2000), which is usually assumed to be counterbalanced by a parallel increase in a policy- and issue-based voting rationale (Franklin et al 1992). Despite the clear decline of partisanship at the aggregate level, the findings regarding the explanatory power of the concept at the individual level are still limited. We know little about the impact of partisanship in relation to issue concern for those individuals who still feel close to a particular party. Partisanship influences an individual''s issue attitude (Campbell 1960 et al) and the other way round (Fiorina 1981). Therefore, both are usually assumed to point towards the same party. What happens, however, if those two incentives diverge and render the voter cross-pressured between issue preference and partisanship? Which party will she then vote for? This paper examines the actual vote choice of cross-pressured partisans and brings forward hypothesis as to when they are expected to vote for their partisan party and when they are expected to turn to their party of issue preference. Stronger partisanship is expected to increase the likelihood to vote for the partisan party while issues are expected to pull partisans away from their party when they are either salient or plenty in number. This account is tested by linking voters’ attitudes on policy issues from the voter survey of the European Election Survey 2009 with their parties’ stances on the same policy issues as collected in the candidate data of the European Election Survey 2009.