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The IMF's say - Assessing its Role, Channels of Influence and Power Resources in the Crisis and Beyond


Abstract

The sovereign debt crisis has brought the IMF into the euro area as a key actor in crisis management the influence of which extends far beyond this immediate task. This article assesses its different roles in the euro area in crisis from 2010 to today (as a donor, an influencer of policies and of institutional change in the euro area). The paper firstly compares the situation in 2012 to the pre-crisis EU/euro area-IMF relationship. In order to explain its increasing importance, it secondly assesses the channels of influence the IMF uses, the formal and informal power resources it disposes of and its strategies to deal and form coalitions with national and European actors (European institutions, in particular with the European Central Bank and the European Commission within the Troika, national actors both on the donor and the recipient side, with the EFSF/future ESM etc.). A third part discusses in how far the increased influence of the IMF is a temporary phenomenon which will disappear with the crisis, whether there are permanent changes under way that will turn the IMF’s immediate influence into lasting effects (both institutionally and policy-wise), or whether the IMF is even to expect a more important institutional role in the medium-/long-term. The paper builds on recent academic literature on the IMF in crisis management. The analysis of the recent developments in the euro area, in particular with regard to the IMF’s role, however, have not been covered by many academic publications. The analysis of the developments since spring 2010 is hence based on official documents, media reporting and interviews with decision-makers and advisors both within the IMF and in the euro area.