Black Knights and Mass Uprisings in Authoritarian Regimes

During the latest decades, works on autocratic survival and failure has proliferated. While for long only internal determinants of authoritarian stability and breakdown were addressed, scholars now increasingly pay attention to the international dimension as well. In particular, the role of negative external actors (so-called ‘Black knights’) – external actors that bolster autocracies and/or undermine democratization processes – has been emphasized. While these black knight effects have been thoroughly dealt with in case-studies, no systematic longitudinal large-N analysis of the phenomenon exists. In this paper, we attempt to rectify this imbalance through a statistical analysis of Black knight support to authoritarian regimes during periods of mass uprisings. First, we pin out three mechanisms through which black knights may bolster authoritarian regimes threatened by popular uprisings. It is argued that political, financial and military support from a black knight help incumbents 1) lower the risk of elite defection; 2) minimize the costs associated with repression; and 3) cancel out western pressure for regime change. Second, we use a new dataset on ‘Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes’ (NAVCO 2.0) to map out the senders and targets of black knight support across a period of 50 years (1946-2006). Finally, we use the same dataset to statistically asses the impact of black knight support. We find that black knights do indeed make a difference, helping incumbents hold on to power when threatened by the masses.