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Ecology of Ideologies in European Parliaments

Comparative Politics
European Politics
Political Competition
Political Parties
Political Sociology
Marc Van De Wardt
University of Amsterdam
Joost Berkhout
University of Amsterdam
Marc Van De Wardt
University of Amsterdam
Floris Vermeulen
University of Amsterdam

Abstract

This study applies the ecology of ideologies model (explaining the evolution of organizations via selection processes in an ideologically polarized population; Vermeulen 2013) to explain party birth and party death (see also Lowery et al., 2010; 2011). The ecology of ideologies model stems from the density-dependence model (Hannan & Freeman, 1989), which basic assumption is that organizations in a population rely on the same key resources to exist. As such, they respond similarly to environmental forces, which takes one of two forms: competition or mutualism. A paradox emerges for ideologically similar organizations. The common assumption is that like-minded organizations should co-operate, rather than compete to achieve shared goals. Due to resource overlap, however, competition is strongest among these like-minded organizations. Translating these insights to party competition, we expect the effect of density on party birth and death to be influenced by the degree of ideological (left-right) polarization among the electorate. Higher polarization implies that the electorate consists of multiple similar-sized nodes of voters with comparable policy preferences. While societal polarization is expected to decrease competition for scarce resources between ideologically distinct parties, it should increase competition between ideologically similar parties miming the same niche. Within party families, we expect to find a negative density effect: multiple competitors within the same niche causes party death. At the same time, within a polarized society, the presence of a party belonging to a specific party family (e.g. radical right) may increase founding rates of ideological rivals (e.g. radical left) due to counter mobilization effects. These propositions are tested on West European multiparty systems. We employ longitudinal negative binominal regression analyses and event history analysis. Societal polarization is measured by means of Eurobarometer data of left-right self-placements. The relevant information on political parties is extracted from the Comparative Manifesto Project Database (CMP).