Local Policy Preferences and Candidate Position-Taking in the German Federal Election of 2013

The paper explores the link between local policy preferences and candidate position-taking. It is argued that nominal candidates for the German Bundestag react to local policy pressures in predictable ways. The candidates are subject to two principals – local constituencies and party headquarters. If preferences of both principals diverge, candidates are likely to stake out ambiguous positions in order to avoid upsetting one of the two principals. The claims put forth are empirically investigated by analyzing candidate responses to a vote advice application that was published in the 2013 German federal election campaign. The candidate responses are combined with a sample of user responses on identical items. Applying a hierarchical model with explicit information on district neighborhood relationships we are able to estimate district and even party supporter preferences and their effects on candidate position-taking.