In many open list systems the number of preferential votes increased significantly in recent elections. This raises the question which factors determine the electoral success of individual political candidates. Previous research has shown that especially the position on the ballot list has a strong effect. However, the underlying mechanisms behind this effect remain unclear. The position on the list can have a direct influence, through a so-called primacy effect, or it can be mediated by other factors, as high-positioned candidates are more likely to get media attention and campaign resources from political parties and may electorally benefit from these advantages. Using data from the local elections in Belgium, this paper aims to disentangle the different mechanisms using a path model. This will give more insight into the ballot order effect, but also into the influence of media attention and campaigning on the electoral success of candidates.
