Game theoretic equilibrium concepts require that political actors think in complex and similar ways. There is little empirical basis for this. In its place, this paper develops a "self-confirming equilibrium" model of democratic consolidation. Affect-based assumptions replace Bayesian requirements. The findings have implications for the possibility of equilibrium as well as the substance of public actions. Findings suggest that the public evaluates sovereign action based on affective evaluations and affiliations, not cognitive driven sentiments based on sovereign economic and political performance.
