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Is it the Economy? How Economic Context and Government Participation Condition the Effect of Party Campaign Messages

Z Greene
University of Strathclyde
Z Greene
University of Strathclyde

Abstract

Abstract: Parties craft campaign messages to fit their electoral context. However, theories of party competition have only begun to explore these dependencies. I add that the economic context constrains the effect of parties’ electoral tactics. Opposition parties benefit from moderating their positions or selectively emphasizing issues in their platforms. Instead, government parties have an established reputation. Poor economic conditions foil government parties’ campaign messages. However, governing parties profit from selectively emphasis when the economy grows. Using evidence from the CMP for 24 OECD countries over a 60 year period, I find that economic context conditions the electoral impact of parties’ campaign messages. In addition, individual level evidence from the CSES is consistent with the underlying mechanism; economic conditions influence voters’ perceptions of parties’ messages. The results complement a growing literature on parties’ election messages and help to explain inconsistent evidence for the success of parties’ campaign messages.