Party System Stabilisation during Times of Financial Crisis: The Paradox of the Baltic States

Because of the salience of economic voting (against incumbents) and protest voting (against established parties), economic crises can transform the party systems and destabilize the electoral trends. However, there are cases that contradict such expectations: despite the increase of unemployment and recession, financial crisis did not push the party systems in the Baltic States towards increasing electoral instability. In contrary, some stabilization trends were observed: incumbents achieved satisfactory results and electoral volatility stayed at moderate levels. This paper argues that economic crisis provides an opportunity to break a vicious circle of electoral volatility, government instability and changing supply side of the party system. Budget cuts and the risk of electoral demise devalue the spoils of office: since little incentive exists for government reshuffling and foundation of new parties, political competition becomes more structured. Analysis of individual level data from 2008 and 2012 parliamentary elections in Lithuania supports these macro-level considerations.