Dictators do not rule alone. They require a group of people – the “inner circle” - that helps them maintain stability, implement policies, collect revenues, etc. A wealth of qualitative evidence suggests that connections play an important role in determining who enters this so-called “winning coalition”. The paper thus proposes a theory of coalition formation along the ties of a trust network. Using simulations on networks of different shapes (Erdös-Rényi, tree networks representing ideal hierarchical patronage networks, and actual (albeit inferred) informal networks of elites in the Chinese Communist Party) it shows how holding a central position in these networks increases the chance of being part or the initiator of a successful winning coalition. It also explores the stability of such coalitions in the face of contenders proposing alternative winning coalitions.
