This paper compares three gas disputes between Russia and two transit countries, Belarus and Ukraine in the period 2004-2008: between Russia and Belarus in the period January-February 2004; between Russia and Ukraine in January 2006; between Russia and Ukraine again in March 2008. These three disputes have in common their having opposed Russia as a producer and Belarus and Ukraine as transit countries and the existence of a dilemma posed to Russia because of the effect these disputes might have on end-consumers in the rest of Europe due to gas cut-offs. The goal of the paper is to analyze the escalation of these three disputes through a game-theoretic perspective and thus to assess whether Russia learnt from each of the disputes in terms of the benefits involved in either starting or escalating each of them according to what would be expected from rational choice theory.
