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The Intertemporal Dimension of Political Decision-Making

Governance
Public Administration
Public Policy
Matthew Barr
University of Southampton
Matthew Barr
University of Southampton

Abstract

This paper theorises the nexus between intertemporal decision-making and cognitive biases. In doing so it develops a model based on the following principles; that complex political decision-making takes places in a task environment of procedural rationality; that resultantly various cognitive mechanics are used to help navigate through complex decision-making processes; and that temporality plays a part in defining which biases and heuristics arise and which do not. Based on an empirical case study of pre-war decision-making processes relating to the 2003 invasion of Iraq this theoretical framework takes the approach that whilst heuristics and cognitive biases are the product of certain task environments the particular incarnations of which are partially temporal defined. Consequently, the analysis of complex decision making processes should not only be viewed through a cognitive lens but also a temporal one to better understand both the cognitive dynamics at play and policy option outcomes.