A Matter of Perception: Non-Democracy Promotion During the Arab Spring

Scholars have recently begun to examine why and when non-democratic regimes attempt to promote non-democratic rule abroad. During the Arab Spring non-democratic regimes supported fellow regimes in some cases while supporting opposition movements in others. This paper develops a theoretical approach that explains under which conditions non-democratic regimes support non-democratic governments or opposition forces in times of revolutionary waves. Drawing on poliheuristic foreign policy analysis, it argues that perceptions of similarity serve as a heuristic filter to estimate threats to regime survival at home. If governments perceive the situation in other countries as similar to their domestic situation, supporting fellow governments will be the only acceptable strategy. Empirically, the paper compares the responses of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members during the Arab Spring. The analysis reveals covariation between perceptions of similarity and threat among GCC governments on the one hand, and theirjavascript:; strategies on the other.