Too Much Accountability: Politics Without Partisans in Post-Bailout Ireland

The Irish election of 2011 was one of the most volatile ever in Europe, as the voters turned against the government that had led the country into a bailout by the ECB/IMF. Party attachment was already very low in comparative terms, and so provided little insurance for the government elected to deal with the post-bailout economy. This paper maps the continuing volatility post 2011, to a point where the three old parties muster just 47% between them in the polls, down from then 90% they won for most of the last 50 years. The paper will explore how far the changes evident between 2007 and 2011 have been continued, or reversed. Most striking now is the support of more than 1 in 4 voters for 'independent' candidates, as voters lose faith in parties altogether. Evidence will be drawn from commercial polling as well as the 2014 European election study, with elections studies of 2002, 2007 and 2011 providing baselines.