Direct Democracy and the Financial Crisis

Member state governments have avoided holding referendums on European integration since the beginning of the financial crisis. But has the crisis made it impossible for governments to win such referendums? There have been three referendums since the beginning of the Eurozone crisis. The outcomes are puzzling because the Irish rejected the Lisbon Treaty in 2008, before the crisis unraveled, and accepted it in 2009 in the thick of the Eurozone crisis. Contributing to the puzzle, the 2012 Irish referendum on the European Fiscal Compact passed seamlessly. The article argues that the answer lies in the campaign dynamics. Based on 50 in-depth interviews with campaigners and public opinion data, the analysis demonstrates that despite causing a drop in EU support, the Eurozone crisis also provided governments with an opportunity to control the ‘risk factor’ in referendum campaigns, by exploiting worst-case scenarios that might unfold in the case of a No vote.