What reasons do voters have to act strategically in a proportional electoral system like the Belgian one? In a multiparty PR system, voters are never in a position to vote strategically in the conventional sense of the word (keeping a less-preferred party from executive power): Belgian coalition formations happen after the elections and are a party prerogative. However, voters might have expectations and preferences about their favourite party’s coalition partners and might behave accordingly in the voting booth in order to influence the post-electoral coalition formation game. For instance, they might defect from a (small) preferred party in favour of a larger one with more coalition potential. We will use the 2014 MEDW data to show to what extent coalition expectations, parties’ perceived coalition potential and voter’s party preference structures influence vote intentions for the federal and regional elections.
